Saturday, October 25, 2008

Game 3: Are you confident?

So the World Series is coming back to Philly tied at a game a piece. This was the goal right? To get a split in Tampa? Then why do feel so uncomfortable about where this series is going? Maybe it's because I'm used to seeing Philly teams come up oh so short. Maybe it's something much more tangible; like the pitching (mis)matchup for game three. However, I think it's because the Phils appear to be in one of their offensive ruts that have plagued them this season, and it couldn't have come at a worse time.
I'm pretty sure I'm in the minority in thinking that Jamie Moyer will have a strong bounce back performance tonight in game 3. But the Rays have arguably their best pitcher, in Matt Garza, going against him. Garza, like the Phillies best pitcher Hamels, was the LCS MVP for the Rays. And that is not good news for an offense that has been absoluetly atrocious at hitting with runners in scoring position. 1 for 28 is not just bad, it's epic-ly bad. And it's not just hitting with runners in scoring position. It's simply putting the ball in play with runners at third and less than two outs. Game 1 was a 3-2 win by the Phils, but it easily could have 5 or 6 to 2 without getting a single extra hit. Same situation in game 2. With the score 3 or 4 to nothing, the Phillies had a runner on third with less than two outs in 3 straight innings. They failed to get the man home every time. You put the ball in play in those situations, and it's very conceivable that it's completely different game. And this without improving that RISP stat one bit.
Now back to Moyer. There's no way getting around it; Moyer has not looked good in his two playoff starts. But for some reason, I'm strangely oppomistic he'll have a strong start. Let's not forget Moyer won 16 games this year and was the Phils most consistent pitcher at times this year. He's been in the league forever, and the only way you stay in the league as long as he has is by being able to bounce back from tough starts. But there is a bigger reason for opptimism: the matchup. I look at the Rays, and I see a lot of similarities to the Florida Marlins; a team that is young, aggresive, and can hit the ball with the best of them. But the downside to that is that they are young and aggresive. What?! Moyer has dominated the Marlins in his career because he has been able to use that aggressiveness against them. His array of breaking and offspeed pitches are especially effective when the hitters are looking to pound the ball, and will expand the strike zone in order to do it. Granted, the Rays are not the Marlins. They are more patient, and can score without hitting the homerun. But I think there are more than enough similarities to be confident.
As good as Moyer could potentially be tonight, the key to game 3 lies in the bats of the Philadelphia hitters. They've gotten guys on base, and in scoring position, a lot during this series so far. They "simply" haven't been able to hit them in. At all. There are two ways to look at this. Either they are bound to start connecting, because no team can this futile for too long. Or this is an example of the offensive problems that have haunted this supposedly vaunted offense all season. This weekend, all eyes should be on the offense, as has been the case all season.

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