Friday, July 27, 2007

I've got the Fever...

...And in this case, cow bell is not the only prescription. That fever is fantasy football, and with the opening of training camps this past week, it is upon us. And the fever usually last through December, as long as your team isn't horrible. Truthfully, I'm not too sure what this post will be about; I just need to start talking about this. What it won't be, is a mock draft. Even I, he who gobbles up anything with the word football on it, can't stand single person mock drafts. It's one thing to have a bunch of people have an actual draft that doesn't count. But it's entirely different when Joe Bloe writes "Joe's Mock Draft." How can one person simulate an activity that relies on the actions of 8 or more people? He can't. And without further adieu, here are my ramblings on the 2007 year of fantasy football.

- QB's. They're the most important position in the real world. In fantasy, not so much. But underestimating their importance is an express ticket to the cellar of your league. And when you're talking QBs, there is only one at the top: Peyton Manning. No one has been as prolific, AND consistent, than Archie's boy. Consistency is huge in fantasy sports, and the when dealing with the QB posisiton, its paramount. There is nothing worse than having your QB stink it up one week and lose the match; except maybe having him on the bench the next week when he lights it up, and you subsequently lose. Believe me, this has happened to me way too much. However, if you're one of the 7-11 people who can't get their hands on Manning, it's not the end of the world. There are a number of other serviceable, if not very good, QBs to get. The key with these guys is to not reach to early in your draft for them. Remember, in 95% of leagues, RBs are hugely important. These QBs, in no particular order, and in my opinion, are: Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, Marc Bulger. Then feel free to throw in Phillip Rivers, Matt Hasselback, Jon Kitna, Tony Romo.

- L.T. No one will ever overtake Lawrence Taylor as owner of those initials. But LaDanian Tomlinson is more and more deserving of the same abbreviation with each and every touchdown. In fact, a better set of letters for him might be TD; except those have a previous owner as well. To put it simply, there is not one player more valuable in fantasy sports than Tomlinson. If you have the number one pick this year, and do not pick L.T., then just hang up the fantasy cleats right now because you don't deserve to play. I'm so high on L.T. that even last year, when there seemed to be a three-way tie for top pick between him, Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson, I would have taken Tomlinson without much question. And speaking of those other two backs, I don't think either is even close to L.T. Shaun Alexander is almost not worth mentioning here anymore. His offensive line has yet to recover from losing Steve Hutchinson, and it appears his foot is having troubling recovering from the injury it suffered last year. And Johnson, while still a top-5 back, is coming off a record setting season in terms of carries. Is he wearing down? I don't know, but his offensive line certainly looks to be. And now the news came out that Priest Holmes, former consensus number one fantasy pick, is back in training camp after missing the last year and a half with injury, and Johnson is stuck in contract negotiations. All these things make me very cautious of LJ. There are a number of backs ready to take his place as top tier options. Brian Westbrook definitely will if the Eagles show a continued faith in the running game that they showed the second half of last season. Frank Gore is another guy. And Stephen Jackson is ready to become a top three back. Also look out for Joseph Addai in Indy, Willis McGahee in Baltimore, Laurence Maroney (if he can stay healthy), and Maurice Jones-Drew, the pinball runner in Jacksonville.

- The New England Patriots. Lots has been made of the offseason acquisitions made by the Pats. Donte Stallworth, Wes Welker, and Randy Moss have all been added to the receiving corps. And many think that, with Tom Brady, they can all become fantasy all stars. This is just not the case. First, Welker is a possession receiver, and that's it. He's a nice addition to the real Patriots, but not worth much to a fantasy team. Second, Brady is known for spreading the ball around, and stats are of absolutely no concern to Brady and coach Bill Belicheck. No one in this offense will become a huge receiving threat for fantasy owners. However, Moss and Stallworth, could potentially put up some big weeks. The problem with them is consistency. Moss, because he like to take a number of plays off per game (and I don't buy that a new uniform and a new "attitude" will result in a new style of play. Randy Moss will always be Randy Moss). And Stallworth has proved one thing in his career. He can't perform well two games in a row. Whether it is injury, game plan, or personal performance, history tells us to sit Stallworth after a big game; and this goes against every fantasy instinct we have. Because of this the Patriots WR corps will give headaches all year. Stay away, except for backups on bye week starts.

- Donovan McNabb needs to be higher on your draft board. I full-heartedly acknowledge that this may be homerism, but if able to stay healthy history proves that #5 will be among the leaders at QB; if not the best. Over the last three years, McNabb has started the season on an absolute tear. The last two, he was unable to finish the year. But the other year, he was a top MVP canidate, throwing 31 TDs and oly 8 INTs. If not for Manning's record breaking season (and even Culpepper's great season), McNabb would have won easily. The ACL injury is not a concern to me. It is the year 2007. And while we don't have the flying cars and maid robots promised to us in 1980's movies, medical science has come a long way. Athletes, with the proper rehab, are able to make full recoveries from the injury. For every one horror story about a guy who's career ended from the injury, there has got to be ten success stories. I've had ACL reconstruction surgery myself, and with proper rehab, I see no reason why a full recovery isn't possible. And therefore, I see no reason why McNabb shouldn't prove the doubters wrong again and have a fantastic season.

- Tight Ends. I don't care if you have Antonio Gates; no TE is going to score you enough points on a consistent basis to warrant the early picks they're sure to get. It is all about value with this position. Just because someone picks Antonio Gates early in the draft, doesn't mean it's time for the rest of the league to make a run on TEs. There is such a big drop off at this posistion that once someone grabs Gates, you might as well wait. And wait. And wait. Never pass up a starter at QB, RB, or WR, or even a great defense that is still on the board, to draft a tight end that isn't Gates. That usually equates to 6 or 7 rounds before you should grab a TE not named Gates; and that may be pushing it. With that said, here are some other tight ends to think (for a number of rounds) about after Gates is taking: Tony Gonzalez, LJ Smith (contract year!), Ben Watson, Jeremy Shockey, Vernon Davis, Heath Miller, Todd Heap.

- Defense win championships. Well, not really. Occasionally a defense is so explosive they can become a valuable part of your fantasy team; like Chicago, San Diego, and Baltimore last season. But most of the time, you're hoping your defense doesn't get lit up and lose you points. And usually, unless I can get a top defense, I don't even draft a defense until the final round (if at all). What I end up doing is playing the matchups week to week. Figure who the worst offenses in the league are, and then pick up the defense that is playing them; even if that means playing St. Louis against Oakland. Sometimes you will get burned, but other times you will look like a genius.

- Kickers. Kickers are even less important in fantasy than defenses. Just take one on a decent offense and stick him in there every week. There is no strategy to picking up kickers week to week. Trust me, I've tried.

So basically, I have one Golden Rule of fantasy football: Take Ladanian Tomlinson with the first pick. Other than that, you're on your own. Good Luck.

No comments: