Thursday, August 23, 2007

The Straw that Broke the Hamels Back?

It's never a good idea when you analyze a team's injury problems by stating who has not been on the disabled list. And the number of Phillies on that ever decreasing list is down to nine with the addition of Cole Hamels to the 15 day D.L. And so far, the Phillies have shown more resilience than a Brawny paper towel commercial. But now they have lost two straight series to the N.L. worst Pirates and the rapidly slumping - or I should say, previously rapidly slumping - Dodgers. They are now 5 1/2 games behind the Mets and 1 1/2 behind the Padres for the Wild Card, and without their best remaining player, Hamels, for the next week and a half, it looks entirely possible that the Phils will not be able to fight off this latest injury.

Take a look at the Phils current rotation: Jamie Moyer, Kyle Kendrick, J.D. Durbin, Fabio Castro. What do you notice? Well, besides the fact that they currently only have four starting pitchers, it's blindingly clear that a team with this group of arms should be no where near a playoff birth. Jimmy Rollins stated during spring training that the Phillies were the team to beat in the N.L. East. Bold words, yes. But if J-Roll made that statement knowing who would be pitching in mid-August, the Phillies would need a new shortstop because Rollins would have been checked into Belleview.

But Rollins was looking at a much different rotation. One that actually had six arms. Only Moyer remains. Forget the injuries that the Phillies offense has endured this season. Going from a staff of Brett Meyers, Freddy Garcia, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, and Jon Leiber to what we see now, really is incredible. But through it all, the Phillies remained in contention.

While they are still very much in it, the loss of Cole Hamels during the most important stretch of the year, the odds are becoming very long against the Phils. There is only so much a team can take. And over the last two series, we might have seen this team cross that line. This is not a "Stick a fork in them" article (even though maybe it should be) because the Phillies have already gotten through so much, maybe they can keep it together for two more weeks. Why two weeks? Because Cole Hamels, Chase Utely, and even Michael Bourn should all be back to help the Phillies make one final push toward their first playoff appearance since 1993.

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